优化GD-模糊规则的滑坡预报模型研究

为了提高滑坡灾害预报准确率，改善传统的滑坡监测和预报中存在的参数选取困难及模糊控制系统作为预报模型精确度不高的问题，首先采用山体结构稳定性分析法进行滑坡灾害参数的选取，得出降雨量、含水率、土压力及岩土表面位移增量作为预报参数的结论；其次将选取的参数作为模糊系统的输入，建立滑坡灾害发生概率模型，并引入优化的GD算法修正预报模型中的动态参数，使模糊控制模型具有自适应性；同时与未优化的模糊控制模型以及单独模糊控制模型进行仿真对比，仿真结果表明，该控制算法收敛速度快，具有很好的收敛性；最后将该模型在某滑坡重点灾区实验区进行实验测试，实验结果显示该模型具有较好的收敛性，且预报精度达到90%。     

基于k-shell的复杂网络最短路径近似算法

复杂网络最短路径经典算法的处理效率较低，不适用于大规模复杂网络，而现有近似算法通用性有限，且计算准确率不理想，不能满足规模日益扩大的复杂网络中的最短路径计算需求。针对于此，提出基于[k]-shell的复杂网络最短路径近似算法。算法利用节点的[k]-shell值进行网络划分并引导搜索路径，利用超点聚合处理[k]-shell子网来降低路径搜索中节点和连边的规模，通过在路径搜索过程使用双向搜索树方法提高算法的计算效率和准确率。实验结果表明，算法通用性较好，在现实与仿真大规模复杂网络中均具有较高的计算效率和准确率。     

A gradient boosting decision tree approach for insider trading identification: An empirical model evaluation of China stock market

Insider trading is a kind of criminal behavior in stock market by using nonpublic information. In recent years, it has become the major illegal activity in China’s stock market. In this study, a combination approach of GBDT (Gradient Boosting Decision Tree) and DE (Differential Evolution) is proposed to identify insider trading activities by using data of relevant indicators. First, insider trading samples occurred from year 2007 to 2017 and corresponding non-insider trading samples are collected. Next, the proposed method is trained by the GBDT, and initial parameters of the GBDT are optimized by the DE. Finally, out-of-samples are classified by the trained GBDT–DE model and its performances are evaluated. The experiment results show that our proposed method performed the best for insider trading identification under time window length of ninety days, indicating the relevant indicators under 90-days time window length are relatively more useful. Additionally, under all three time window lengths, relative importance result shows that several indicators are consistently crucial for insider trading identification. Furthermore, the proposed approach significantly outperforms other benchmark methods, demonstrating that it could be applied as an intelligent system to improve identification accuracy and efficiency for insider trading regulation in China stock market.     

2.5 GHz城市环境电磁态势的计算与补偿

复杂城市空间的电磁态势分布可以通过电磁场数值计算的方法进行预测。文章使用矩量法(MOM)结合一致性几何绕射理论(UTD)的方法对2.5 GHz频率下某小区环境中的电磁态势进行了仿真计算以及实际测量。场景中的树木结构在此频率下显示出比较强烈的波动性,对电磁仿真计算结果产生了不可忽略的影响,文中将其对仿真计算结果的影响进行了单独建模仿真,给出其产生影响的经验值,对仿真结果进行修正。修正结果与测量结果对比证明该经验值在该频率下可以有效补偿计算结果的缺失。     

Design structure matrix (DSM) method application to issue of modeling and analyzing the fault tree of a wind energy asset

The perpetual energy production of a wind farm could be accomplished (under proper weather conditions) if no failures occurred. But even the best possible design, manufacturing, and maintenance of a system cannot eliminate the failure possibility. In order to understand and minimize the system failures, the most crucial components of the wind turbines, which are prone to failures, should be identified. Moreover, it is essential to determine and classify the criticality of the system failures according to the impact of these failure events on wind turbine safety. The present study is processing the failure data from a wind farm and uses the Fault Tree Analysis as a baseline for applying the Design Structure Matrix technique to reveal the failure and risk interactions between wind turbine subsystems. Based on the analysis performed and by introducing new importance measures, the “readiness to fail” of a subsystem in conjunction with the “failure riskiness” can determine the “failure criticality.” The value of the failure criticality can define the frame within which interventions could be done. The arising interventions could be applied either to the whole system or could be focused in specified pairs of wind turbine subsystems. In conclusion, the method analyzed in the present research can be effectively applied by the wind turbine manufacturers and the wind farm operators as an operation framework, which can lead to a limited (as possible) design‐out maintenance cost, failures' minimization, and safety maximization for the whole wind turbine system.     

Predicting Prostephanus truncatus (Horn) (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) populations and associated grain damage in smallholder farmers’ maize stores: A machine learning approach

Prostephanus truncatus is a notorious pest of stored-maize grain and its spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa has led to increased levels of grain storage losses. The current study developed models to predict the level of P. truncatus infestation and associated damage of maize grain in smallholder farmer stores. Data were gathered from grain storage trials conducted in Hwedza and Mbire districts of Zimbabwe and correlated with weather data for each site. Insect counts of P. truncatus and other common stored grain insect pests had a strong correlation with time of year with highest recorded numbers from January to May. Correlation analysis showed insect-generated grain dust from boring and feeding activity to be the best indicator of P. truncatus presence in stores (r = 0.70), while a moderate correlation (r = 0.48) was found between P. truncatus numbers and storage insect parasitic wasps, and grain damage levels significantly correlated with the presence of Tribolium castaneum (r = 0.60). Models were developed for predicting P. truncatus infestation and grain damage using parameter selection algorithms and decision-tree machine learning algorithms with 10-fold cross-validation. The P. truncatus population size prediction model performance was weak (r = 0.43) due to the complicated sampling and detection of the pest and eight-week long period between sampling events. The grain damage prediction model had a stronger correlation coefficient (r = 0.93) and is a good estimator for in situ stored grain insect damage. The models were developed for use under southern African climatic conditions and can be improved with more input data to create more precise models for building decision-support tools for smallholder maize-based production systems.     

Critical state model for structured soil

Structure is an evident determinant for macroscopic behaviors of soils. However, this is not taken into account in most constitutive models, as structure is a rather complex issue in models. For this, it is important to develop and implement simple models that can reflect this important aspect of soil behavior. This paper tried to model structured soils based on well-established concepts, such as critical state and sub-loading. Critical state is the core of the classic Cam Clay model. The sub-loading concept implies adoption of an inner (sub-loading) yield surface, according to specific hardening rules for some internal strain-like state variables. Nakai and co-workers proposed such internal variables for controlling density (ρ) and structure (ω), using a modified stress space, called t_ij. Herein, similar variables are used in the context of the better-known invariants (p and q) of the Cam Clay model. This change requires explicit adoption of a non-associated flow rule for the sub-loading surface. This is accomplished by modifying the dilatancy ratio of the Cam Clay model, as a function of the new internal variables. These modifications are described and implemented under three-dimensional (3D) conditions. The model is then applied to simulating laboratory tests under different stress paths and the results are compared to experiments reported for different types of structured soils. The good agreements show the capacity and potential of the proposed model.     

Influence of expertise on semantic categorization of wine odors

Aromatic characterization is a key element of enhancing one’s knowledge of wine. While several studies have investigated the importance of wine expertise in the ability to perform odor-related sensory tasks, little attention has been paid to the influence of expertise on the semantic categorization of wine odors. To bridge this gap, this study aimed to explore the influence of a subject’s expertise on the semantic representation of wine odors by means of a free sorting task. For this purpose, 156 subjects were recruited. Their level of expertise was measured using a questionnaire and the data analysis revealed four clusters of subjects with a gradual level of expertise. Subjects also performed a sorting task on 96 odor terms. From the number and the size of odor groups formed, as well as the additive tree representation and the consensus partition between the terms for each expertise level, we observed that all subjects, regardless of their experience, had largely the same semantic categorization of wine-odor attributes, which was mainly shaped by the sources of the odorants. It appeared that level of wine expertise played a minor role in creating the semantic representation of wine odors, affecting mainly the knowledge of specialized terms.     

Signature of Meyer-Neldel compensation rule in iso-conversional crystallization under the influence of γ-ray irradiation

In the current article, the influence of three different doses of gamma-rays on the thermally assisted crystal growth in a novel ternary chalcogenide glassy Se₇₈Te₂₀Sn₂ semiconductor has been reported in terms of the re-crystallization. The iso-conversional kinetic approach is used in the present study. The variation of crystal growth rate with temperature obeys the Arrhenius relation for all the doses of gamma-rays irradiation. Further analysis confirms that pre-factor K₀ of crystal growth rate and the corresponding energy ΔE involved in thermally governed crystallization follows Meyer-Neldel compensation rule (MNCR). Further, we have observed a linear correlation i.e., Further Meyer-Neldel compensation rule (FMNCR) between Meyer-Neldel pre-factor K₀₀ and Meyer-Neldel energy kT₀. The observed correlations between these significant parameters (MNCR between K₀ & ΔE and FMNCR between K₀₀ & kT₀) may open a new gateway for revealing the external effects on crystal growth rate during the iso-conversional analysis of crystallization kinetics.